The 2022 Midterms Show What’s at Stake in the United States
The 2022 congressional midterm elections are possibly the most important in our lifetimes. According to renowned historian Jon Meacham, author of books on Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, and John Lewis, these are the most consequential elections since the Civil War.
Our current times might not “try our souls,” as Thomas Paine argued, but Meacham says they are “the gravest test of citizenship” We the People have faced in 160 years.
Rising voter tides
Turnout at midterm elections—the years without a presidential contest—trended low for decades.
But in 2018, in the midst of Donald Trump’s presidency, turnout surged by 11 percent over the historically low participation rates in 2014. This was true across age, race, and ethnic groups. In the case of 18 to 49-year-olds, voter turnout surged by 79 percent, from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018. Voting rates also increased notably among Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters, and among people who completed higher levels of education. And, as in every midterm election since 1998, women voted in higher numbers than men.
Midterm voter participation has still historically lagged behind voting rates in presidential election years. Until—maybe—2022.
By October 28, 2022, more than 17 million Americans had already cast their midterm ballots, as numerous states opened up early voting ahead of the November 8 general election. And forecasts still showed total participation on track to be significantly greater than usual, with younger voters a big factor in close races across the country.
Forty percent of young voters ages 18 to 29 said they planned to “definitely” vote in the 2022 midterms, according to an October Harvard/IOP poll. Another 16 percent said they would “probably” vote. The total for both groups amounts to exactly twice the percentage in this age range voting in the 2018 midterms, and more than the 50 percent in this cohort voting in the 2020 presidential contest.
Voting for their future
The economy is on everyone’s mind, but younger voters are paying more attention to existential issues that will loom large over their lives, notably including climate change and the freedom to make their own personal decisions.
The threat to abortion rights has galvanized the participation of younger Americans in the political process. Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the ultra-conservative Supreme Court in June, young women especially have registered to vote in paradigm-shattering numbers.
As states have begun to make abortion illegal, Americans across those states have voiced strenuous opposition to this governmental control over women’s bodies. In fact, a KFF Health Tracking Poll published on October 12 showed that half of all voters surveyed said the overturning of Roe made them more likely to vote in the midterms. And two-thirds of Democrats said that the decision was a big motivator for them. Before the anticipated decision, in May, only 37 percent said they’d be more likely to vote.
But we can’t preserve abortion rights or solve climate change without free and fair elections. And that might be the most existential issue of all. It’s why Vice President Kamala Harris keeps telling us, “Democracy is on the ballot.”
Democracy on the ballot
The 2022 midterm ballots featured hundreds of candidates for state and national office running on the “Big Lie,” the conspiracy theory-fueled falsehood that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election. These election deniers typically want to ban early and mail-in voting, and to make it harder for groups like Black Americans and young people to vote.
In key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, the midterm Republican candidates for secretary of state—each state’s chief election officer responsible for certifying the vote—have espoused conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election.
In Florida, officials acting on requirements from the Republican governor’s new Office of Election Crimes and Security have even arrested people they say voted illegally. These people tended to be former felons who had served their sentences, had their right to vote restored under a new Florida law, and voted in good faith. Even the local police charged with their arrest were confused as to why there were warrants out on these people. Of the 19 voters known to be arrested under this new policy, at least 13 were Black.
Between making it harder for groups that overwhelmingly vote Democratic to actually cast a ballot, eliminating practices like early voting that increase turnout, and denying results afterward, elected officials who espouse authoritarianism and conspiracy theories could effectively end our democracy. CBS News and numerous other media outlets have counted up the total number of Republican election deniers running in the 2022 midterms for state and national office: There are more than 300 of them.
In Georgia, now solidly in the swing state camp, early 2022 midterm voting hit record levels, and by the end of October was already approaching turnout figures for the 2020 presidential election. No doubt the gubernatorial campaign of Stacey Abrams fueled a good bit of these numbers, as she entered a rematch against incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp.
The Abrams-Kemp contest is a good example of what Kamala Harris means about democracy being on the ballot in 2022: State governors, like secretaries of state, wield enormous power over the gears of democracy.
In 2018, Kemp was serving as Georgia’s secretary of state, responsible for certifying the governor’s race in which he was a candidate. In his years as secretary of state, Kemp cut more than 1.4 million inactive voters from the rolls, with that number consisting mostly of low-income and minority group citizens. His office put the voter registrations of another more than 50,000 Georgians—most of them African American—on hold as the 2018 contest approached.
Kemp has denied deliberately suppressing the vote. But in 2019, the U.S. House of Representatives opened an investigation after receiving numerous reports about “significant barriers” faced by voters of color in Georgia.
Pennsylvania State University professor Michael Berkman pointed out to CBS News that, throughout world history, authoritarian regimes are typically voted into power. In the U.S., we’re used to thinking, “It can’t happen here.” But “democratic erosion,” Berkman said, is “most likely to happen from within.” And once an authoritarian ruler is in place, it becomes easy for them to “change the rules” and “change the referees” to make it impossible for democratic elections to take place again. People become accustomed to having their rights chipped away.
In every election year from now on—assuming we continue to have free and fair elections—we should all make a plan to vote, help friends and family make a plan to vote, and follow through to do everything we can to help fulfill the promise of a true multiracial, participatory democracy. Before it’s too late.